S. Korea spy chief warns of more attacks

U.S. Navy crewman on the deck of the USS George Washington during a joint military exercise with South Korea, Nov. 30, 2010.NEW: Intelligence chief warns of more attacksReport: S. Korea is in talks with the U.S. for more drills to deal with "provocation by the enemy"Government ministers from South Korea and Japan will attend a December meetingNorth Korea warns U.S.-South Korea drills could lead to "all-out war any time"

Seoul, South Korea (CNN) -- South Korea's spy chief said Wednesday that there is a high chance that North Korea will attack again following an attack last month that has led to renewed tensions on the peninsula, the Yonhap news agency reported.

South Korean lawmaker Rhee Beum-Kwan quoted National Intelligence Service chief Won Sei-hoon as making the prediction, Yonhap reported.

"North Korea pushed for reckless actions as internal complaints grew over its hereditary power succession and economic situations worsened," the lawmaker quoted Sei-hoon as saying.

Meanwhile, South Korea and the United States wrapped up joint military exercises on the Yellow Sea, and South Korea continued plans for artillery firing drills next week amid brewing tensions with North Korea.

The live fire drills are a routine monthly exercise aimed at securing the safety of ships in the area, the South's Joint Chiefs of Staff told CNN. They are scheduled to begin Monday.

Officials said the planned firing drills are expected to take place in waters around the Korean peninsula, including close to the Yellow Sea border, Yonhap reported.

But the Yellow Sea locations are not close to Yeonpyeong Island, where four South Koreans were killed by North Korean shelling on November 23, Yonhap reported officials as saying.

North Korea has said the South provoked the attack on Yeonpyeong Island -- which also injured 18 people -- because shells from a South Korean military drill landed in the North's waters.

Meanwhile, South Korea and the United States are reportedly in talks about more joint naval exercises for this year or next year.

"We have been in consultations with the U.S. to carry out several rounds of joint military drills to deal with a limited provocation by the enemy," said Col. Kim Young-cheol of the South's Joint Chiefs of Staff, the Yonhap reported. "The timing and participating military assets have not been decided yet."

North Korea warned Tuesday that the military drills by the United States and South Korea could lead to "all-out war any time." The firmly worded message was published by North Korea's state-run KCNA news service.

"If the U.S. and the South Korean war-like forces fire even a shell into the inviolable land and territorial waters of the DPRK, they will have to pay dearly for this," the news service report said. The DPRK is the acronym for North Korea's formal name: the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

Government ministers from the United States, Japan and South Korea will sit down in Washington in early December to grapple with the tensions in the Koreas, South Korea's Foreign Affairs Ministry said Tuesday.

The ministry did not provide further details about the date of the meeting, but it comes as China continues to call for an emergency meeting of the six major powers involved in talks about the Korean peninsula. The six countries are China, Russia, North Korea, South Korea, Japan, and the United States.

South Korea has said that it did not think the time was right for a resumption of the six-party talks but said it would "bear in mind" the Chinese proposal.

In Washington, a State Department official has said that the United States is consulting with its allies but that resumed six-party talks "cannot substitute for action by North Korea to comply with its obligations."

The Japanese government said one of its envoys is in Beijing for discussions on the crisis.

As North Korea's largest trading partner and strongest ally, China has been urged by the international community to confront the crisis. It has been meeting with both North and South Korea, and it has engaged in diplomacy over the matter.

On Tuesday, White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs said China has "a duty and an obligation to press upon the North Koreans that their belligerent behavior has to come to an end."

A top Chinese envoy met with South Korea's president over the weekend, and a top North Korean official arrived in Beijing, China, on Tuesday, the first visit to China by a North Korean official since the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island.

CNN affiliate YTN reported that Choe Tae Bok, chairman of North Korea's Supreme People's Assembly, is on a five-day visit to China.

Amid the international attempts to avert warfare, the strident and saber-rattling rhetoric between the Koreas remained the region's background noise.

This comes after South Korean President Lee Myung-bak warned this week that North Korea would face severe consequences if it launched another military attack across its southern border.

"If the North commits any additional provocations against the South, we will make sure that it pays a dear price without fail," Lee said in a nationally televised address.

CNN's Tim Schwarz contributed to this report.

View the original article here

Daily View: Wikileaks on China's attitude to North Korea

Commentators consider the implications of cables released by Wikileaks which show that Chinese leaders no longer regarded North Korea as a useful or reliable ally.

CNN Beijing Bureau Chief Jaime FlorCruz says the Wikileaks revelations are not new news:

"This is an interesting revelation but it is hardly new information, at least not among Korea- and China-watchers. We have heard of similar characterizations of the Chinese mindset in recent months from Western diplomats, describing Chinese frustrations with their North Korea allies. This document simply confirms that.
"China's frustrations have come out in the open a few times. When North Korea conducted a nuclear test in 2009, China broke ranks with North Korea and voted in the U.N. Security Council in favor of imposing sanctions on its North Korean allies. In the past, China, which wields a veto vote as a permanent member of the Security Council, would have simply abstained and let the resolution pass."

David Sanger's analysis in the New York Times suggests the cables are more ambiguous than some have suggested:

"The cables about North Korea - some emanating from Seoul, some from Beijing, many based on interviews with government officials, and others with scholars, defectors and other experts - are long on educated guesses and short on facts, illustrating why their subject is known as the Black Hole of Asia. Because they are State Department documents, not intelligence reports, they do not include the most secret American assessments, or the American military's plans in case North Korea disintegrates or lashes out. They contain loose talk and confident predictions of the end of the dynasty that has ruled North Korea for 65 years."

Editor of chinadialogue.net Isabel Hilton says in the Guardian that the revelation that China might accept the idea of reunification under South Korea could make an unstable situation worse:

"Beijing has proved unequal to the task of keeping North Korea in line, or, as yet, of persuading it to follow China's transition to a market economy. China is regarded as the last country that has influence in Pyongyang, but the leaked cables confirm how limited that influence is.
"Beijing has been unwilling to put real muscle into its persuasion, pointing to North Korea's desire to talk on equal terms with the US. China has facilitated the now stalled six-party talks, but has shied away from enforcing responsible behaviour or allowing the regime to collapse. The US, in turn, is reluctant to concede North Korea's demands for recognition and pleads with China to get its junior ally under control. Now the WikiLeaks revelation that China is beginning to accept the once unthinkable alternative - a reunification under South Korean control - may make an unstable situation worse."

Former foreign secretary Sir Malcolm Rifkind said on the Today programme that the leak may have put back a shift in Chinese policy by years:

"The tragedy of these Wikileaks is that if China is contemplating what would be a historic change in its attitude to North Korea and possible support for reunification, this premature revelation - because of statements made to an American diplomat which now appear in the world's press - that would have put that back by years. That shows the damage that can be done by unauthorised leaks of highly sensitive information and private conversations between diplomats."

In order to see this content you need to have both Javascript enabled and Flash installed. Visit BBC Webwise for full instructions. If you're reading via RSS, you'll need to visit the blog to access this content.

In contrast, the Guardian editorial argues that we should not assume that the release of this information is harmful.

"Today's revelation from the embassy cables that North Korea had lost its strategic value to China as a buffer state between their forces and US ones, and that Beijing would accept the reunification of the peninsula under Seoul's leadership, should send shivers down the spine of the right person - the ailing dictator Kim Jong-il. Pyongyang could be about to lose its only insurer. Long before last week's lethal shelling of a South Korean island, it is clear from the private views of senior Chinese officials that their strategic asset had turned into a major liability... If the leaking of these cables was read and absorbed by North Korea's ageing generals, this would be an example of disclosure instilling realism into a military dictatorship which so clearly lacks it."

View the original article here

Daily View: North Korea attack

Commentators consider what could have triggered North Korea's artillery attack on South Korea.

Senior lecturer in international relations at the University of Cambridge, John Swenson-Wright says in the Independent there may be an internal reason for the attack:

"[A]t a time when the North has been grappling with weak economic conditions, food shortages brought about by flooding and the uncertainty surrounding the succession process for the young heir Kim Jong-un, the government may be looking to a foreign crisis as a means of shoring up support at home. Conflict abroad can mobilise domestic opinion, reinforcing the position of the military and legitimising a leadership in transition."

In the Times Bronwen Maddox says [registration required] the latest artillery attack comes at a time when the Kim regime struggles to maintain its isolation:

"Life in the North continues to be harsh, plagued by shortages of food and energy. But those living there can now compare their lives with the South, as television and film from south of the border are increasingly available. Those governments who protest - in vain, so far - at the flood of counterfeit DVDs from China washing around the globe might take comfort from their effect in North Korea. Even that regime cannot keep them out, and the films show North Koreans that another life could be - and should be - theirs."

The English language South Korean newspaper the Dong-A Ilbo points the blame squarely at Kim Jong Il, saying the attack was planned:

"The North attacked Yeonpyeong Island after unveiling new uranium enrichment facilities to an American nuclear expert as recently as two weeks ago. Obviously, Pyongyang thoroughly planned and prepared to launch Tuesday's attack.
"The North staged the aggression by protesting the joint 'Patriotic Drill' conducted by the South Korean armed forces from Monday. The South Korean military simply carried out artillery exercises in South Korean waters west of Baeknyeong Island and south of Yeonpyeong Island inbetween the two islands Tuesday morning. Having tried to find an opportunity to blame the South, the North launched the attack."

The International Herald Tribune's editorial says it is difficult to tell why the conflict has come about now:

"It is nearly impossible to know what is going on there, but these outbursts are almost certainly tied to the struggle over replacing the ailing leader, Kim Jong-il."

While Simon Tisdall is more confident in the Guardian, saying there is no mystery behind North Korea's actions as their demands have been clear for years:

"First, the regime wants respect, through recognition of its legitimacy, however distasteful that idea may be. Second, it wants a peace treaty - finally ending the Korean war - that guarantees its territorial sovereignty and banishes the spectre of regime change (they watched the Iraq movie, too).
"Third, Kim wants an end to international sanctions and diplomatic isolation - the monicker of America's chief bogeyman is no longer for him. Fourth, he wants food aid, electricity, financial assistance, investment, trade. Finally, the ailing dictator wants backing for the postulated dynastic succession of his youngest son, a scheme that could yet collapse amid acrimony or worse."

View the original article here